世界旅游理事会(WTTC) – 旅游实势预测
英国伦敦的世界旅游理事会 World Travel & Tourism Council（WTTC）在其年度柏林记者会中发布了它的2009年经济影响研究的结果。我摘要其中的要点与您分享。英语原始版本请见後。谢谢。
Clark Hu, Ph.D., School of Tourism & Hospitality Management, Temple University, USA
胡中州 (克拉克) 博士, 美国天普大学, 旅游与酒店管理学院
http://www.temple.edu/STHM
http://tourism.temple.edu
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英国伦敦的世界旅游理事会 World Travel & Tourism Council（WTTC）2009 三月 12 年在柏林发稿。
世界旅游理事会研究的结果显示实势：未来展望将是歧岖的两年…
由于旅游活动在2008年下半年显著恶化和2009 年宏观经济预测的不乐观 ，世界旅游理事会的最新研究显示2009年 GDP 中的旅游经济将紧缩 3.6%。 预计2010年将继续持弱，比较2009年，当前预测2010年将只有少于 0.3%弱边际成长 。
本年度，旅游投资及商务客户旅游预计将会最不乐观。 这两部分的实际投资开支预计将在2009年下跌 5%及 在2010年进一步 下跌1.25%。一般国民旅游开支很可能是影响最少的，但在这部分，尽管国内旅游将替代一些国外旅游，国民旅游开支的跌幅预计 在2009 年将达到2.75%。
鲍姆加滕（世界旅游理事会的主席及总裁）附说，「 新兴经济体将会是旅游经济增长的主要引擎。在中国、 印度和巴西等国家中的日益增长的中产阶层，将成为数以亿万计的新旅客。他们的旅游将不但促进国际游业，还创建一个日益活跃的国内旅游界。
在已发展中的国家，一旦消费者恢复信心时，休闲活动重要性的增加将会提升现有和新的旅游目的地的交通需求。而短期的国内和国际度假的受欢迎程度将在中长期内会继续增加。
整体上来说，旅游经济的预测在未来十年里，每年将实质增长百分之四。 到2019年时，世界旅游业将能提供 两亿七千五百万的工作机会，占世界总就业人数的8.4%。
引述者: Clark Hu
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WTTC Results Show No Time For Rhetoric
12 March 2009
Berlin | The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) today revealed the results of its 2009 Economic Impact Research at its annual ITB Berlin press conference in the presence of industry leaders from different sectors of Travel & Tourism – high-level government representatives, and its research partner Oxford Economics.
“This year, the task of assessing Travel & Tourism trends and drawing up forecasts has been more challenging than ever because of all the uncertainties,” Jean-Claude Baumgarten, WTTC President & CEO, announced at the launch.
Two difficult years in prospect…
Given the significant deterioration in Travel & Tourism activity through the second half of 2008 and the bleak macroeconomic forecast for 2009, WTTC’s latest research shows that Travel & Tourism Economy GDP will contract by 3.6% in 2009. And it is expected to remain weak in 2010 with only marginal growth, of less than 0.3%, currently predicted – on what will already be a weak 2009.
“Lower fuel costs will make a difference,” said Baumgarten, “as will lower general inflation, which should reverse part of last year’s squeeze on households’ spending power. But given how widespread and deep the current recession is, it is inevitable that Travel & Tourism will continue to be affected.”
“Indeed, as a relatively cyclical industry, its contribution to world GDP is expected to fall further in the next two years – from 9.6% in 2008 to just over 9% in 2010,” Oxford Economics’ Managing Director, Adrian Cooper, added. “Job losses are likely to be significant, with employment falling by around 10 million over the next two years towards 215 million in 2010, before recovering thereafter.”
A key message from WTTC is that Travel & Tourism is a major contributor to job creation and poverty alleviation – “a fact that policy-makers would do well to recognise and take into account in their short- to medium-term strategies,” said Baumgarten.
Baumgarten stressed, “The industry is not expecting a bail-out. It needs a supportive framework from government to help it weather the current storm. And governments would also do well to recognise Travel & Tourism’s potential to energise the economy once the current crisis eases.”
… with investment and corporate travel predicted to be hit hardest
Travel & Tourism investment and corporate travel are expected to be the hardest hit this year. Real investment spending is forecast to decline by 5% in 2009 and a further 1.25% in 2010.
Residents’ Travel & Tourism spending is likely to be the least affected, but even here a decline of 2.75% is projected for 2009, despite the substitution of domestic for some foreign travel.
Travel & Tourism’s contribution to GDP and jobs will still be positive longer term
“Nevertheless,” said Baumgarten, “looking beyond the current crisis, Travel & Tourism is expected to resume its leading role in driving global growth, creating jobs and alleviating poverty.
“Emerging economies are expected to be the main engines of growth,” Baumgarten added, “generating hundreds of millions of new travellers from among the growing middle classes in countries like China, India and Brazil – boosting international travel, but also creating an increasingly vibrant domestic tourism sector.”
In developed countries, the increasing priority given to leisure activities can be expected to enhance demand for travel to existing and new tourism destinations once consumers regain confidence, while the popularity of short breaks – both domestic and international – will continue to expand in the medium to longer term.
Overall, the Travel & Tourism Economy is forecast to grow by 4% per annum in real terms over the next ten years. By 2019, Travel & Tourism will account for 275 million jobs, representing 8.4% of total employment across the world.
“This means that Travel & Tourism will continue growing in importance as one of the world’s highest priority industries and employers,” Baumgarten said.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is the forum for business leaders in the Travel & Tourism industry, working with governments and other stakeholders to raise awareness of the importance of one of the world’s largest generators of wealth and employment. With Chairs and Chief Executives of the world’s 100 foremost Travel & Tourism companies as its Members, WTTC has a unique mandate and overview on all matters related to Travel & Tourism.
CONTACT
Regine Doloy
Communications Director
Phone: + 44 20 7481 8007 .
Email: regine.doloy@wttc.org
ORGANIZATION
World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC)
http://www.wttc.travel
1-2 Queen Victoria Terrace – Sovereign Court
London E1W 3HA, United Kingdom
Phone: +44 20 7481 8007
Fax: +44 20 7488 1008
Email: enquiries@wttc.travel
